Is France’s 2024 Vintage the Worst in a Century?
French winemakers had a difficult year: yields were lower, and quality remains uncertain until fermentation is complete. But are things really as bad as the headlines suggest? Julien Miquel investigates.
Introduction
Hello and welcome to your new Bonner Private Wines video, where we learn about wine together weekly. I’m your host, Julien Miquel, Bordeaux-trained winemaker.
All my winemaking friends here in France — the growers currently harvesting the grapes of vintage 2024 and turning them into delicious wine in their wineries — have been telling me how bad the weather has been this year for grape growing, and how poor the crop is likely to be.
Last week I saw this headline in an important wine industry publication: France to produce one of the smallest vintages in a century.
Even I was surprised. What is going on? Is French wine in total decline? Is it a disaster? Are wine prices going to rise sharply around the world if the largest wine-producing country makes very little wine this year?
Let’s talk about it. While they whine, we wine.
Why France’s 2024 Crop Is Smaller
As we speak, vintners are harvesting the grapes that will become vintage 2024 across Europe, as well as in the United States, Canada, and elsewhere.
France has had a particularly difficult year because it has been remarkably wet throughout the growing season.
How rain reduces grape production
Rain affects grape production in two main ways:
Flowering disruption: During flowering, rain washes away pollen, preventing fertilisation. Each unfertilised flower means one fewer grape berry.
Disease pressure: Humidity encourages mildew, a fungal disease that damages leaves and grapes.
Because of prolonged rainfall, nearly every French wine region has been affected, except vineyards along the Mediterranean coast, where sunny conditions remained more typical.
Additional Weather Damage
France also experienced:
Spring frosts that damaged young buds
Hailstorms, increasingly frequent due to climate change
Regional Impact
Expected crop reductions include:
Champagne: 16% lower than 2023
Burgundy and Beaujolais: around 25% lower
Loire Valley: significantly reduced
Alsace: reduced production
Cognac vineyards: notably affected
It is a difficult year, but is it really the lowest production in a century?
Is It Really the Smallest Vintage in a Century?
Not exactly.
France is expected to produce around 3.9 billion litres of wine in 2024, equivalent to roughly 5 billion bottles.
The recent five-year average is approximately 4.5 billion litres, so production is lower, but still substantial.
Recent smaller vintages also occurred in:
2021
2017
So while the headline is partly true, it does not reflect the full historical context.
Long-Term Decline in French Wine Production
Wine production in France has steadily declined since the 1980s.
The main reason is simple: French people drink much less wine than previous generations.
Wine is no longer consumed daily at lunch or with every meal as commonly as before.
Why France Is More Vulnerable Than Italy and Spain
France is heavily influenced by the Atlantic Ocean, which creates a cooler and wetter climate.
By contrast:
Italy
Spain
Both generally benefit from more Mediterranean conditions, although drought can be a challenge there.
France’s cooler climate also contributes to the finesse of many French wines, because grapes ripen more slowly.
Slower ripening often leads to elegance and complexity — but it also increases vulnerability in difficult years.
Why This Matters for French Producers
What is becoming more concerning is the frequency of poor vintages:
2017
2021
2024
For growers and wine businesses, repeated difficult harvests create serious financial pressure.
Will Prices Rise?
Probably not because of vintage 2024 alone.
Global wine consumption has fallen significantly in recent years, meaning supply remains abundant.
Wine prices may continue rising because of inflation, but not specifically because France harvested less in 2024.
What About Quality?
It is still too early to judge quality fully, since fermentation is not yet complete.
However:
It is unlikely to be the vintage of the century
There is no reason to assume it will be poor
Modern winemaking allows producers to achieve excellent results even in difficult years.
Closing
These may be challenging grapes, but winemakers can still produce delicious wine in 2024.
Suggested related topics:
The ten most expensive Bordeaux wines
Rising alcohol levels in wine
Weather changes and their impact on wine
Drink tasty and safe. See you soon in the wonderful world of wine. Cheers!
